Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data
Identifieur interne : 000659 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000658; suivant : 000660Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data
Auteurs : Natalie M. Linton ; Tetsuro Kobayashi ; Yichi Yang ; Katsuma Hayashi ; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov ; Sung-Mok Jung ; Baoyin Yuan ; Ryo Kinoshita ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon]Source :
- Journal of Clinical Medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our results show that the incubation period falls within the range of 2–14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution. The mean time from illness onset to hospital admission (for treatment and/or isolation) was estimated at 3–4 days without truncation and at 5–9 days when right truncated. Based on the 95th percentile estimate of the incubation period, we recommend that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days. The median time delay of 13 days from illness onset to death (17 days with right truncation) should be considered when estimating the COVID-19 case fatality risk.
Url:
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020538
PubMed: 32079150
PubMed Central: 7074197
Affiliations:
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Linton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00538">Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Saitama 332-0012</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32079150</idno><idno type="pmc">7074197</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7074197</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7074197</idno><idno type="doi">10.3390/jcm9020538</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000911</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000911</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000911</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000911</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000110</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000110</idno><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32079150</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000A91</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000A91</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000A91</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000A91</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000614</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000614</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000A72</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000A72</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000A72</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000661</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000659</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000659</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data</title><author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00538">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00538">Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Saitama 332-0012</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Clinical Medicine</title><idno type="eISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our results show that the incubation period falls within the range of 2–14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution. The mean time from illness onset to hospital admission (for treatment and/or isolation) was estimated at 3–4 days without truncation and at 5–9 days when right truncated. Based on the 95th percentile estimate of the incubation period, we recommend that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days. The median time delay of 13 days from illness onset to death (17 days with right truncation) should be considered when estimating the COVID-19 case fatality risk.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Li, Q" uniqKey="Li Q">Q. Li</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guan, X" uniqKey="Guan X">X. Guan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P. Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, X" uniqKey="Wang X">X. Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, L" uniqKey="Zhou L">L. Zhou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tong, Y" uniqKey="Tong Y">Y. Tong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ren, R" uniqKey="Ren R">R. Ren</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, K S M" uniqKey="Leung K">K.S.M. Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lau, E H Y" uniqKey="Lau E">E.H.Y. Lau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, J Y" uniqKey="Wong J">J.Y. 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Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hanage, W P" uniqKey="Hanage W">W.P. Hanage</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, M D" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M">M.D. Van Kerkhove</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hollingsworth, T D" uniqKey="Hollingsworth T">T.D. Hollingsworth</name></author><author><name sortKey="Griffin, J" uniqKey="Griffin J">J. Griffin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Baggaley, R F" uniqKey="Baggaley R">R.F. Baggaley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jenkins, H E" uniqKey="Jenkins H">H.E. Jenkins</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lyons, E J" uniqKey="Lyons E">E.J. Lyons</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ghani, A C" uniqKey="Ghani A">A.C. Ghani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C A" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C.A. Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cox, D R" uniqKey="Cox D">D.R. Cox</name></author><author><name sortKey="Griffin, J T" uniqKey="Griffin J">J.T. Griffin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lam, T H" uniqKey="Lam T">T.H. Lam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ho, L M" uniqKey="Ho L">L.M. Ho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chan, W S" uniqKey="Chan W">W.S. Chan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, R M" uniqKey="Anderson R">R.M. Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hedley, A J" uniqKey="Hedley A">A.J. Hedley</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Japon</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name></noCountry><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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